VR, AR and MR Path to Adoption (2023)

Introduction

Virtual Reality (VR)  has found moderate success in consumer applications, such as gaming. Major gaming manufacturers including Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft, all have dabbled in VR to a limited success. For example, Nintendo hastily released its Virtual Boy back in 1995. Due to a combination of poor design and  headaches from use, it was unceremoniously pulled off the market in 1996. Note : I was one of the few who benefited from this and was able to snag one from Target's clearance shelf.  Augmented Reality (AR) early usage was in Heads Up Display (HUD) in aircraft to overlay important information in front of the pilot, in car information system, and now consumer and industrial use. Mixed Reality (MR) is now helping to drive the future of VR and AR with  product releases such as Meta Oculus Quest family of MR googles, Microsoft Hololens Mixed Reality googles adoption by the U.S. Army Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS), and awaiting Apple to finally launch its Vision Pro to validate the MR market.

   

Quick Definitions

Virtual Reality (VR) : You buy special goggles (usually called VR goggles - which does not have a camera to pass outside world in), put it on, and everything you see in the goggles is not real (virtual). Augmented Reality (AR): You use an every day device (say mobile phone), aim its camera at a thing (say a building), and additional information about the building is overlaid on to screen of the mobile phone. Mixed Reality (MR):  You buy special goggles (usually called MR goggles - which have cameras to pass outside world in), put it on, and and you see both real world and virtual world visuals.  This is where all the action is, with : Meta Quest (version 3 launched October 2023), Microsoft HoloLens (version 2),  Apple Vision Pro (not yet released, but website is up).

 

Enterprise Adoption

Fast forward to 2018. I am at Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona to explore how emerging technologies, including VR and AR, is making inroads into industrial applications. Here at the show, AR seem to have gained a stronger traction over VR. VR is a bit "intrusive" in its use model - usually requires donning special glasses or goggles - and if the Nintendo Virtual Boy is of any predictor, adoption might be resisted. AR, on the other hand, is less intrusive - usually only requires holding up a tablet (such as an iPad) or mobile phone (such as iPhone) towards a "re-conditioned" environment.

Gaming Adoption

In spite of early failures, gaming manufacture continue to power through early design challenges to try to  bring VR back to dizzy gamers. SonyVR, Microsoft Hololens 2, and new challengers such as Meta Quest VR Headsets are not giving up the fight to make VR right. In fact, Meta's vision for VR is not squarely targeted at gamers. Rather, it is targeted at those who want to be transported to an alternative reality called The Metaverse.  Meta has already sunk over $20 billion in 2021-2022 and will continue to invest in it - in hardware, software, and content. As an Oculus Quest owner, I have already enjoyed transporting myself to space, looking out at a serene and calm environment - away from the polluted and contentious planet that I want to escape from. 

Daily Life Adoption

AR has now been quietly gaining traction as a utility to improve daily life. In a recent trip to The Hague, I exited the metro and had no idea where to go.  On my moderately new iPhone (Android has this feature too), I have already installed the Google Map app. Google Map gave me the option of using my iPhone to augment information on top of what my camera sees. So from the metro station, I pointed my phone at a nearby building, and Google Maps was able to identify the building, and it proceeded to guide me on where to walk to. Digging into the technology a bit - Apple has made combining maps and camera data easier via its ARKit software libraries.

E-Commerce Adoption

With the mobile phone as the primary way for consumer to discover, learn, and buy products, AR is now enabling the consumer to explore, visualize, and imagine the product more immersive. This picture was taken at MWC. But if you are a Amazon Prime subscriber, you probably have seen AR features to overlay products (such as a lamp) onto your living room.

Keys To Adoption : Content

As a semi-avid gamer for decades, I have owned almost every major gaming console from Atari, Sega, Nintendo, Sony,  Microsoft, and Meta. And from a casual observation, I can say that games sells consoles. That is why every gaming console has a must have launch title  - such as Microsoft's Halo and Nintendo's Legend of Zelda.  Looking at VR, AR, and MR, it will be games and content and a killer app that drives adoption.  In Oct 2023, wedged between the launch for Meta's Quest 3 and the 2023 holiday season, NPR writes Meta Quest 3 review: powerful augmented reality lacks the games to back it up.  And Microsoft's long and contentious $70B acquisition of Activision highlights this phenomenon - Bill Gates was right 20+ years ago when he wrote the "Content is King" essay.

 

How to Scale Contention for VR, AR, MR

Make creation of  virtual worlds easier by further leveraging tools that have already been used to do this such as Unity3D or Unreal Engine. Enable easier 3-D modeling of real world assets, perhaps open source versions of builder tools such as Blender,  Maya (Autodesk), or 3ds Max. Lower  Write code to implement the functionality of your VR experience. This includes user input handling, interaction mechanics, and any custom features.  Use the chosen game engine's scripting language (e.g., C# in Unity, C++ in Unreal

 

Conclusion

MR, AR, and VR is continuing to refine the future of human to machine engagement. It has had a rough start - early failures of Nintendo's Virtual Boy,  soldiers complaining of headaches with Microsoft Hololens,  the snail pace transition to the Metaverse.  But if the gaming industry (and its tools) has anything to teach us - it is that Content is King.